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Closing Bell

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day. New. (CC) (Stereo)

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01:00:00

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San Francisco, CA, USA

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Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

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mpeg2video

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ac3

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528

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480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Us 8, Jay Carney 5, Michelle 4, Washington 4, U.s. 4, Sandy 3, Warren Buffett 3, Blackberry 3, Apple 3, Egypt 3, Stewart 2, Nyse Euronext 2, Citi 2, Brian Shactman 2, John Harwood 2, Sandra Levin 2, Diana 2, Mary Thompson 2, Obama 2, Stu 2,
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  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide  
   through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day....  

    November 26, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

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>> wilmington, delaware? i could hitch a ride? by the way, mandy, i'm angry steven starr said he would only do an interview if you did it. i conned him and told him it was you and i snuck in at the last minute. hello, happy cyber monday. welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth at the new york stock exchange. >> ime chwe're off the lows of e session. >> let's show you the markets right now. we had a lot of 120 points at the low 69 session. now it's about half that amount, down 60 points on the dow at 12,949. the nasdaq is positive right now, thanks mainly to apple which is up 3-plus percent today.
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citi just initi initiated cover apple. >> just now? >> they didn't have coverage before? >> maybe the previous analyst -- >> they had a new analyst. yes, he likes it. anyway, s&p is down almost five points, off its lows at 1404. fears of the fiscal cliff taking center stage once again, driving stocks lower after last week's 3% surge. that big gain friday, 172 points. we lost a third of that right now. how can you protect your for portfolio? we have chief washington correspondent john harwood, bill from coors state capital advisers who has a review of the new "lincoln" movie, lee munson and senior economics reporter steve liesman, plus mary thompson. we're going to be here for a while. john, let's start with you. any signs of progress on the hill? >> reporter: nothing tangible. we saw it at the initial meeting between the president and
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congressional leaders. we saw it over the weekend when some republicans again repeated their openness to being willing to raise taxes, which is something that is violated republican orthodoxy. here is jay carney just a few minutes ago in reaction to those comments. >> some of the comments you mentioned are welcome. and they represent what we hope is a difference in tone and approach to these problems and a recognition that a balanced approach to deficit reduction is the right approach. it's the one most beneficial for our economy. >> reporter: the president's trying to take advantage of that different tone. he talked to speaker boehner over the weekend by telephone. and today you've had two business leaders, john engler, tom donahue, in to meet with senior white house officials. they're trying to keep this going. aides on capitol hill tell me no
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substantive progress in negotiations just yet. they're just now getting back to work after thanksgiving. >> how does that make you feel about the market? does it make you feel like they have more kum-bi-ya going on in washington, d.c.? does it make you more willing to invest? >> i'll tell you what. i saw spielberg's "lincoln" over the weekend and it was incredible because it reminded me how nothing has changed on capitol hill. >> i agree with you 150%. >> in 150 years. >> don't you get tired of everybody saying, oh, washington is a mess right now. it's never been this bad. it's always been this bad. you see that in the movie. >> well, we had a civil war in the -- >> some say it's never been worse. it's been worse. >> go ahead, bill. do you think they can pull this off? >> the one thing it reminds us is you shouldn't bet on anything. we should bet on volatility. we could bet on the doomers and gloomers, y2k and here we go again. the whole name of success is to have a repeatable process on how to deal with investing.
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whether it's in stocks, bonds, gold, doesn't matter. have a plan, a strategy, have consistency. it's going to be volatile in every single asset class through the end of january. >> lee, you say as an investor, ignore the fiscal cliff, right? >> i'm like bill. you have to have a process. i don't care what they're doing. do i care about some of my clients with deductions? there's a lot of talk about cap deductions. sure, i am but i'm not going to change my invest bonds or strategy. we use risk budgeting, risk management techniques. going into next year there's a sense at my firm that we have to squeeze more out of every tactical move we can because of potential tax consequences. i just think that makes you leaner and meaner. if you're a company that struggled over the past couple of years with this anemic growth, 2013 i'm optimistic and think there will be growth, it's
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not going to be -- >> okay. >> whatever has been able to survive, you keep an eye on. >> mary thompson, weakness in markets today, connected to anything that john's been reporting about the willingness to raise taxes? >> coming into it a lot of people were saying, we are overbought going into the end of yesterday's session so they were expecting some kind of pullback anyways today. i would say that was a big part of it. also some weakness in that there wasn't any progress or any notable progress in the fiscal cliff. that's contributing to it. but given the strength of last week's rally, some people said we had to take money off the table coming in today. >> slowly this market is still coming off those lows. the dow now down just 58 points at this hour. steve liesman, while we're on it, we talk about the recovery that is slowly under way here. what impact did sandy, the superstorm that hit a few weeks ago here in the northeast and along the eastern seaboard, what impact? you have new data suggesting the
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impact it had on the economy. >> you are talking about what could be a manmade disaster. this is a natural disaster. iar worldwide, one of the companies that gauges the insured losses. only insured. doesn't count government. has significantly increased its estimate to $16 to $22 billion from 7 $to 15 billion. that's a little lower on the upper range but about double. they're citing much greater storm damage than originally estimated. and, of course, higher payouts on insured losses. mayor bloomberg just this afternoon also estimated the losses for new york city alone, economic activity and government at $20 billion alone. this may be -- remember, initially it was estimated at $50 billion event. maybe it's more like $75 billion or $100 billion. just a warning to investors, there's a lot of data coming up this week that's affected by sandy. if you take a look tomorrow,
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durable goods could have a sandy effect in it. new home sales thursday, you have jobless claims. again, a sandy effect in there. and the challenge for those playing the short term is to disaggregate, what's sandy and what's the real economy and after that figure off the fiscal cliff. >> all of that feeds into what you were saying, bill, expect a lot of volatility. the sandy effect will make it harder to decipher what's going on with the economic data. >> and the economic data is going to be skewed by mother nature, by politicians, a lot of things. you need a longer view, more than four weeks -- >> what's your view right now? >> cautious. but have you to be invested. you can't sit on the sidelines earning zero thinking you're going to accomplish anything. the one-year treasury at a quarter of a percent doesn't work for me. there's lots of opportunities out there and it gets back to focus, having a steady hand, ice
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in your veins and no one to buy. volatility could be good for an investor with a strong stomach and a strong will. >> but i think when you say words like cautious, sometimes -- i agree with bill with what he's saying but i think using a word like cautious overstates it. have you to go in here, go on the offense and use these dips to start buying. i don't think people need to necessarily be cautious. i think they should be aggressively trying to pick up equity when they can. maybe that means using the volatility as best you can. i don't think we'll get the volatility a lot of people are expecting. don't think we'll have a big 10% correction before the end of the year where it will be obvious, now i can step in. >> thank you very much. >> thank you, folks. we have 52 minutes before the closing bell. right now the dow jones industrial average lower by 59%. nasdaq slightly higher, five points. >> millions of people shopping from home on or work on this cyber monday.
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find out which retailers may be ringing up the biggest online sales. >> holiday shopping has literally gone to the dogs. >> unbelievable. >> americans spend a whopping $5 billion, yes, with a "b" on fido and fluffy on the holidays. we'll talk to the ceo of petsmrt, robert moran. >> but cats are getting the short trip -- >> that's terrible. >> like a zombie, this stock just will not die. shares have more than doubled after being left for dead. we'll see if there's more room for this mystery stock to rally. this has been a source of great controversy among the "closing bell" staff, for example. and we'll get to that mystery stock coming up.
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millions of americans hit the malls on black friday and millions more, we are told, doing shopping online today. >> we have full team coverage of this cyber monday. nbc's diana at an amazon
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distribution center, brian shactman at a land's end distribution center in wisconsin. we'll start with courtney reagan crunching the cyber numbers. >> what a weekend it was, surprising most retail catchers on the upside. comp score says black friday is the biggest shopping day, with more than $1 billion sent. today expectations are today will leap frog black friday. we have been tracking sales today. sales have been increasing throughout the day. up 21% an hour later and now they're up 24% year-over-year. and we saw a spike at lunchtime and then we could see another spike occur at consumers made their way home. multiscreen consumers transitioned to shopping at their desk. google's updated search query show electronics are leading. right now nexus, followed by
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laptop, ipad mini, the kindle fire. if you take a look at all this, amazon is the only retailer left on the list at this point in the day when we're talking about top google search queries. >> that's a cool data point. >> i think 24% increase is big. >> did is a big increase. but it's logical, right? it's logical. there's a secular shift moving towards online. more access, more supply. you can do it on your phone. >> i would agree. but i would think 10% would be a big number but 24% -- >> the overall number matters to the economy, right? >> we'll get into in lighter. >> i'm a skeptic. >> let's check in how fast amazons -- products are moving at amazon with diana at the distribution center. >> there's an easy way to see what's trending. go to the amazon.com website and see their best sellers. kindle fire is one of the best sellers. along with levi's jeans for mens
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and the elf on the shelf. we won't have any sales numbers yet but today is the biggest day for amazon because today the largest numbers of placed. that's easy to see. this is the gigantic inbound section at this one fulfillment center in phoenix. all along that w trucks. by the end of the day, more than 350,000 items will have been taken off those trucks and put on shelves. even bigger, more than 500,000 items will have shipped out. that's all in one day on cyber monday. the team here tells me they expect today to be their best cyber monday ever. bill and michelle? >> holy cow. that's a big number too. >> i love those shots. how much does cyber monday mean to the bottom line of retailers? brian shactman is at a land's end distribution center in wisconsin. >> reporter: you know, michelle, it's tough to follow amazon with those numbers but land's end ceo
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told me directly this is their biggest day of the year and part of their biggest week. by midday they were confident in saying they're guiding 20% better than last year. consistent with the numbers courtney had given you. during one hour the website broke a record of 24,000 orders. when all of today's business gets shipped, land's end will surpass last monday cyber tally of 180,000 orders processed. this facility has been busy for the better part of of a week because cyber monday is part of a larger push. the cullmy naction from last wednesday through today, hugely promoted discounts. this tote here usually sells for 25 bucks. they have their doorbuster, virtual doorbuster, for $10. told out in 33 minutes. the cnbc logo, that's an extra 6 bucks. i can confirm just about everything we've heard anecdotally the shopping season is off to a pretty strong start. back to you.
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>> big numbers there as well. thank you very much. will this cyber monday be the ligest online shopping day of the year for a third straight year? which retailers will be the winners and losers? >> let's talk about it. ben arnold of npd, brad thomas from capital markets. ben, you say all signs point to this being the biggest cyber monday yet. we're hearing big numbers from amazon and lands end anecdotally. is anybody making money? what about the bottom line with the discounts they offer? >> certainly the products are being heavily discounted to drive a lot of the volume, a lot of sales. my reason for being upbeat about cyber monday is that cyber monday has become its own shopping occasion, separate from black friday. you've now got cyber monday deals going all through the week, walmart, best buy, online retailers are putting an emphasis on it. the one downside to cyber monday as we look at growth going forward is cyber monday lasts all week. so, you could be eating turkey on thursday night and take advantage of a cyber monday
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deal. that makes sales on the actual day of monday a little of rifshg going down. >> yeah, they get a little diluted. how are smartphones and tablets changing the way we shop this holiday season? we were talking about the huge increase in cyber spending year over year on black friday. i think it's so much easier to do it on your tablet and phone right now. >> absolutely. they are affecting sales big time, in a huge, huge way. we heard earlier there was a 24% lift over last year for cyber monday. that was just desktop. i expect a huge lift tonight because a lot of people are probably going to be sitting in front of their couch, eating dinner they'll check out the deals on their smartphones and tablets. the impact of the phone and the tablet can't be underestimated because it has completely just made it that much easier to access the internet and to access the sales. e-mail is the number one way people actually find out about these sales. they're seeing it on their first
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screen. they check out those e-mails. they go through, complete that transaction. that's going to be a huge driver of what's going to continue to lift today. >> it's got to be great impulse buy. on the couch, ipad, e-mail comes through, let me connect. it's instantaneous, at least for girls. >> i do it, too. brad, break it down for investors watching. who are the winners and losers this cyber monday? >> as we look at our retail coverage, the big thing we look out for is the promotional level. i think the first takeaway here is the promotional levels we saw today and that we saw over the weekend were in line with what we saw last year. so, at this point, nobody's breaking the line. everybody's holding steady. it does look like we're off to a healthy start to the holiday. as you look for winners and losers, we think you want to avoid the 800-pound gorilla. avoid any retailers that compete against amazon. you want to avoid consumer electronics base, best buy,
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office products, retailers, staples, office depot. >> you want to avoid the competitors to amazon but do you want to buy amazon? >> amazon's not in our coverage but it's the 800-pound gorilla. this company has grown with revenue over 30% the last five years despite getting to the size where it will be around a top ten retailer in the u.s. this year. it's a huge company growing at a fast pace. as you heard the stories of tablets gaining market share and smartphones becoming a way to shop, we're in the early innings of internet taking share from brick and mortar. >> i know you're not stock pickers, per se, but who do you see out there that's doing a good job of handling cyber retail these days? >> i don't think there's any question amazon has the winner. it almost doesn't even matter. you asked about profitability
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and margins. it's almost irrelevant whether they'll have higher margins or not this year because what they're looking for is market share. they're looking for that wallet share. they want to make sure the consumer is spending money with amazon and not with anybody else. and they have other ways to make money, the marketplace. >> at some point they have to worry about that. but i get your point. who's a winner and loser when it comes to doing cyber sales well? >> i don't see any losers. i think most of the retailers are winners. the ones doing particularly well, aside from amazon, are your best buys, walmarts, who are able to integrate cyber monday with the in-store promotions, creating a lot of synergy and this idea of the omni channel really taking hold over black friday. >> thank you very much. happy cyber monday. happy surfing, however you shop. >> we need another shopping event in america. >> that's what we really need, isn't it?
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heading toward the close. they've been shopping for bargains on wall street. the dow down 63 point. i say just because it was 120. that was the number at the low of the session earlier today. we're well off that number. >> many investors left this stock for dead, hence why we're showing zombies. >> last year's cnbc christmas party. >> it has been resurrected. can you guess what company it is? find out if you should buy in or just let the stock rest in peace. more and more democrats willing to jump off the fiscal cliff rather than take a deal they don't like? the house's top democratic tax writer thinks that's a really bad idea. find out when sandra levin joins us later on the "closing bell." [ male announcer ] where do you turn for legal matters?
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...could end with adding a close friend. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection. listen up. in the last few minutes a white house spokesperson jay carney said something important at the afternoon briefing. john harwood joins us. >> reporter: what jay carney said in briefing the press a
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moment ago is the issue of social security and long-term solvency, the white house considers on a separate track from fiscal cliff discussions. i have to say although that sounds like a profound statement, i think there's less there that meets the eye. it's a standard democratic talking point to say that because social security has a separate dedicated funding source, that it is not part of the long-term fiscal challenge facing the country. that's not true. the long-term funding source is not adequate to meet social security's obligations. so, whatever the white house's negotiating position at the beginning is, it is going to be part of the fiscal cliff discussions. we'll see what sort of solution gets offered. jay carney is reiterating that democratic talking point. it's the yin and y rachlt ng of these discussions. both sides need to negotiate. and they have to stake out their positions and this is one for the democrats. >> a lot of people look at this
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and say, it violates the spirit of what a lot of folks need to happen, which is to reform entitlements. i understand medicare say bigger problem than social security but it's all part of the same discussion in the end. >> yes, exactly it is. look, social security is not solvent over 75-year window. it's solvent for a reasonably short period of time but it needs more money to pay the benefits it's promised. either benefits have to be cut or revenue has to be increased. whatever -- however they describe the tract that negotiation is on, it is part of the long-term entitlement challenge washington and congress has to solve. >> all right. see if we could really be worried about them talking about taking it off the table. fears of the fiscal cliff we're talking about right now, weak demand dragging down energy prices today. sharon epperson at the nymex. >> oil prices are falling waiting for more news to come out of the recent range. we are looking at a decline in
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crude oil, the wti contract and brent crude prices. the fact we're still waiting for a deal in greece, the fact we're waiting for major economic news here in the u.s. and the fact we're still waiting to see what wloo this truce holds between israel and hamas, all of these are factors traders are watching. natural gas is the big story in the energy complex because it fell by more than 4%. the biggest plunge in 15 weeks. traders looked at the map of the country and saw warmer temperature as head. a reason for selling pressure. back to you. >> sharon, thank you very much. let's get to this stock that just will not die. we're talking about research in motion. shares have been higher after cibc raised its rating on the company. it's the latest upgrade for this left for dead stock, which rallied over 50% in a month ahead of its new operating system launch. so, can r.i.m. still run higher? that's what we're talking about. talking numbers with these two gentlemen on the technical side,
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carter worth on appearen hirm, steve cortez. carter, technically speaking, you like r.i.m., don't you? >> sure. here's the thing, this company makes no money. they're projected to make no money. it's the greatest boom and bust story ever. in the last five years it's dropped from 150 back to 5. the issue is valuation is out the window when something can double, which it's just done off the low. gone from 6 to 12 in 2 1/2 months. right now there's a lot of momentum in the stock and we think it goes higher. >> steve, you don't like it. hey, buddy, don't forget, you can't break your arm falling out of a single story window. >> that's true, bill. i will concede it's had an incredible run, doubling in the last two months. i think this is the very definition of a dead. i think for that matter it's not really about r.i.m. i think it's actually about apple. if you look at the charts of the two, r.i.m. bottomed on september 24th. that was one day after -- one
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session after september 21st. we saw apple top out against 700. what i think has gone on is money is coming out of apple in a hurry and trying to find another smartphone home and doing it in r.i.m. which i think is the most misplaced fundamental place is-t can be placed. this is a company, market share of the phone market, largely replicates long-term stock chat. that is, it's continually lower and lower. one year ago they had 3% of the global phone market. today it stands at 1.9%. cibc report, they're arguing for stabilization. i would argue a company that is in a downward spiral like r.i.m. needs better than just stability. >> the ultimate issue, all of that is true, and let's say it goes to zero. none of that can cope with the fact it's just double. then you have a stock -- 50 analysts on the street. do you know how many buy recommendation? six. everyone hates it. that gives wriz to big moves like this. we've seen a big move. who's to say it's over? if it can go 6 to 12, why not to
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15? there's a lot of momentum in the name. it was up on friday. huge, as everyone knows. a lot of gapping going on. that's the kind of behavior you want if you're trying to basically profit in the stock market. >> carter, i would argue from a fundamental perspective you don't want a stock to rally this fast if you think the rally is sustainable. the fact it rallied this hard, this fast it's overshorted. i think so, in fact, when you look at fundamentals, the debut -- >> there are no fund mentals. i mean, it's a disaster. it's a disaster. >> no, look, there is a product launch. the blackberry 10. that's what the long-term bulls have to hang their hat on blackberry 10 doing better. i think all signals, particularly from app producers, the makers of apps show them not even designing for this platform. if you want to be in smartphones have you to be in apple or android google. >> thank you for your thoughts on r.i.m. those who do have those older museum piece blackberries are
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watching and waiting very carefully for that blackberry 10. thank you, guys. michelle? >> the dow is lower by 68 points. nasdaq still managing to stay in positive territory. just barely with about 28 minutes before the closing bell. warren buffett renewing his call for a millionaire's tax. our next guest says you can raise taxes all day and not make a dent in the debt without doing one more thing. later, the battle inside the democratic caucus. how ways and means senator levin explaining why democrats willing to jump off the cliff are making a huge mistake. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else.
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i'm sorry, we've been having a whole discussion while you were gone squloot show between the show. >> warren buffett is encouraging congress to make between $1 million and $10 million would pay 30%, above $10 million would pay 35%. a member of the so-called patriotic millionaires, a group
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of high net worth individuals in america who agree with warren buffett. curtis is the senior policy analyst at the heritage foundation. he says we have to focus on spending cuts, not tax hikes if we want to solve our problems. welcome, both of you joining us here. why focus on taxing the rich even if you say it won't solve all of our problems here? >> we have two problems. we have a spnding problem and taxing problems. we've been taxing the wealthiest americans under 30 years under the guise it was going to trickle down and expand jobs. it hasn't. it's not helping the country grow. and it's been bad policy. we need to reverse that and get to something a little more balanced. you're not going to fix these problems just on the backs of the poorest people who need the coverage the most. >> what about the spending side of the equation? you say tax cuts have expand the the deficit but spending has been ridiculous under democrats
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and republicans. you know perfectedly well, you n tax them at 100% and you don't make a dent. >> absolutely. we've known for a long time baby boomers would start aging and expecting their benefits. they're turning the oldest -- oldest baby boomers are turning 64 roughly now and expecting their benefits. for 20 years we'll have this entitlement problem. we need to reform that. we're faced with a fiscal cliff that kicks in on the first of the year. we've ee lebllected a whole new of people to congress that ought to have some say on spending problems and right now we need to address one issue, things part of the fiscal cliff. >> curtis, you agree spending is a bigger issue but isn't taxing the rich at least a good start on solving the fiscal cliff? >> everyone's talking about how can we get republicans to cave on tax increases? >> the reason we have an
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impending debt crisis is because we're spending more. raising taxes isn't going to deter the debt crisis coming down the pike. we need to focus on spending. we need to get president obama and senate democrats to say what spending they'll cut and how to change entitlement. >> did you hear what jay carney said in the last few minutes? he said social security, by the way, off the table. we're not going to discuss this while we do the fiscal cliff discussions. i mean, we're already there. raising taxes but not cutting spending. >> and that's exactly the point. >> social security is funded separately. it has it's own line item, it's a separate bill -- >> until the money runs out? then what do we do? >> that's not the point right now. >> it is. >> no, it's not. you won't solve those problems by going after the fiscal cliff. >> the only thing derailed is the conversation on what matters. what matters is spending. we have a debt crisis coming done the line.
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because we're spending too much. yet no one wants to talk about spending. we're talking about where can we raise taxes? raising taxes doesn't lower the deficit at all when you add it up. we need to cut spending. the senate democrats are not helping. >> the fiscal cliff started before the new congress comes in, spending is something the new congress ought on take care of. that's what we elected them to do. let's talk about the fiscal cliff, solve this problem, move on to the next one, solve this problem involves higher taxes for some americans. >> but you know perfectly well, rick, the only rev lleverage yoe right now in order to cut spending is the tax issue. if you separate them, you raise taxes. when do you think spending cuts are ever going to come? you really believe they'll do it? >> i absolutely believe. i've been fortunate enough to spend time with the administration. i believe this administration spends there are spending problems and they want to address them. i believe they're willing to sit down and put everything on the table.
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i think we have to stop this mrilg gamesmanship -- >> they said they're taking social security off the table. they just said that. >> as far as the fiscal cliff goes. what they want us to say is we agree to higher taxes today for the promise of looking at spending in the future. i mean, come on. this is never going to happen unless we cut spending now. it's a shell game -- >> to bring it in is -- >> you keep saying is that as much as you want -- >> it's totally part -- it's the spirit of the whole question. >> i don't think so. >> gentlemen, thank you for joining us today. appreciate it very much. we need to drill more to make ourselves energy independent. let's discuss that as part of the fiscal cliff as well? >> has nothing to do with spending. >> exactly. >> but social security has everything to do with spending. >> not as it pertains to the fiscal cliff. where were we? headed to the close. 20 minutes left in the trading day. look at that, still going steady
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with dow down 35 points. >> your portfolio hangs in the balance. coming up, top strategists weigh in on how you should invest now. >> fired for not getting a flu shot? that's what happened to 150 workers at one of the largest employers in cincinnati. we'll look at both sides and whether that's a fair business practice or an outrageous violation of privacy. something else michelle and i can disagree on coming up later on the "closing bell." [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- what starts with adding a friend... ♪ ♪
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we are nearly one month away from the crucial fiscal cliff deadline, even though many are skeptical about if and when congress can come to an agree on that. stewart from jp morgan continues to be an optimist. >> he joins us along with ed. stu, i could use a little optimism. >> all right. can't we all? >> give it to me? >> the number one reason to be optimistic is so many people are pessimistic. as an investor that suggests we're more likely to go up than down. when people start out pessimi pessimistic there's more room for surprise. we're in this period where one
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day the cliff is on, one day the cliff is off. all this political posturing going on. it's going to get worse before it gets better. >> the posturing? >> the posturing will. >> but that creates opportunity for investors. so many people have cash on the sidelines, i think that limits the downside as long as we don't go off the cliff like wile e. coyote. >> are you optimistic? >> no. >> your petrified? it's going to be horrendous? >> i don't think it's going to be horrendous. there's a lot of cash on the side. tell me what there is to be optimistic about other than the fact more people -- i know this historically, when people are not happy and not optimistic, usually there are opportunities. i don't see them. i see higher taxes, a slower economy, i see higher prices. i see wages falling. all because the election's over.
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there's nothing that is better. so, if i'm going to -- as an investor, i'm encouraging my clients to run away from interest rate-sensitive bonds, look at managed futures to hedge your portfolio and buy equities and don't shorten your time horizon because you'll have to choice. you have to be a full-time investor, stay fully invested but run away from interest rate sensitive bonds like munis and government bonds. >> is it my imagination or has the market on a day to day basis, we're starting to see a pick up in volatility. one day a 100-plus move, the next day 100-point move on the dow. is that related to what's going on on capitol hill? >> i don't think so. look, friday's move is sort of typical of what you see on a friday after thanksgiving. it goes one way or the other. guys were trading it had a feeling the market would be strong. and it carried all the way through to the bell. the important thing today is we didn't give it all back which means the market is trending
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higher. as far as fiscal cliff, i don't really believe it's priced inasmuch as it needs to be. i think guys are somewhat difficult ludilut diluting themselves. i think that you really have to be cautious here as we get closer that things might not be as peachy as they seem. >> we should say even though you're optimistic, you don't think they'll get it done in a timely fashion. the deadline is december 31. >> and it's just another day. maybe that date will slip. i think the odds are 80/20 they make it by that date. they can't afford to let the economy go off the cliff we're all talking about. they can't afford to have $600 billion of fiscal contraction in this economy. >> so, you and ed seem to disagree about what they might get done but do you disagree on how to invest right now? he says you have to be fully invested here. >> we are fully invested. we bought more equities for our
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growth clients a number of weeks ago and we bought u.s. equities on weakness because we believe there was an opportunity to. you want the market to go up indefinitely over the long run and i think it will happen. >> i'm curious about your call about avoiding munis. a lot of people see taxes going up on everything else. >> this is what it is. tax-exempt bonds sound good when taxes are going up but the value of the bonds have been bit up because panic buying is pushing our interest rates go up. you'll lose a lot of principle on munis bonds. if you buy one today you have a 1% to 2% chance to the upside and a 40% chance of losing money. that's not good odds. run away from interest rate-sensitive bonds. that's my number one, you know, tip of the day, if you want to
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call it. stay away from that. >> the takeaway from ed. thank you for joining us, stewart. a pleasure. >>. >> 12 minutes before the closing bell. right now the dow jones industrial average is lower by 54 points. nasdaq higher by 70 point. >> violent protests in egypt are one of the many hot spots around the globe affecting our markets. we'll round off all of them and find out how they are affecting your money coming up next. plus, one top democrat says members of his party threatening to jump off the fiscal cliff. they say, do it already! he says that's a business mistake. sandra levin joins us from capital to tell us why he thinks it's a baddied. working since i was about 16.n you know, one job or the other. the moment i could access the retirement plan, i just became firm about it -- "i'm done. i'm out of here." you know, it's like it just hits you fast.
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you know, you start thinking about what's really important here. ♪ ♪
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welcome back. shares of auto nation down sharply at this hour. kayla stepping in to tell us why. >> the volume that's leading auto nation down better than 5%, that stock has seen an unbelievable amount of weakness throughout the last month during which a bunch of insiders decided to sell their shares. you can see it's down better than 5% today. there was some bullishness after hurricane sandy that a lot of consumers would be buying cars. that's all but waneed and trickling through to the stock market today. >> thank you very much. looking beyond the u.s., there are many big global events causing major waves in our markets. and your money from europe to egypt, you're our international correspondent, what are you watching carefully right now? >> a lot of flash points but two i think we should pay attention to. first of all, egypt. we've seen days of protests because the new president claims some autocratic powers for
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himself. yesterday was the first day to see the egyptian market. it plummeted. we really don't know how this arab spring is going to unfold as we head into yet another year of it. >> broadly speaking, is that an oil play? >> yes, that's the possibility as we look at unrest. the other issue is argentina. a new york judge made a controversial ruling against argentina. they have a couple of payments coming up in december and we know a lot of emerging market funds own argentine debts and they may not make the coupon payments. that could have an impact. plus, there's controversy about the decision itself and whether or not it could actually impact the payment and settlement system of the international financial market. i'm sure that's going to get resolved but we should be watching. >> there could be a domino effect. >> exactly. uncertainty. >> we're focusing on greece and spain but -- >> they still matter but argentina right now is an immediate concern because it's three coupon payments. >> something to keep an eye on.
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we'll come back with the closing countdown with the dow down 63 points. >> and we'll talk to one of president obama's top economic vers about this new statement about social security suddenly no longer on the table when it comes to discussions about spending and the fiscal cliff. how are we going to rise above when you take certain things off the table? >> also, after the bell, americans spending billions of dollars this holiday season on their pets. we'll speak exclusively to the ceo of one of the companies cashing in on that. >> look at that kitty. >> the cats are being left out. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. if we want e our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing
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they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary, not commission. they'll get straightforward guidance and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. very quickly. here's how we're going out on the day. down about 120 points on the day. let me show you a longer shot of the dow here. the last time we had a decline was six months ago. look what happened here. we had this quick turnaround and moved higher. we've had a quick turnaround. if we're going to do it, technology will lead the way.
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the nasdaq was higher today by nine points. you can guess why. apple was doing well today with a gain of 3%. citi initiating coverage on apple with a buy recommendation. stu, do you like apple at these levels? >> i don't talk individual stocks but i like technology. >> you must like the bellwether of technology. >> i like the growthy part of technology, absolutely. >> i hear on you that. >> i like the way you worked around it. >> well, yeah, been doing this a little while. warren myers, is volatility going to pick up between now and the end of the year if we have not gotten a deal on fiscal cliff? >> the closer you get, the -- >> are we seeing that yet? >> not yet. if we get through middle of december without any news, you'll see the volatility pick up. >> and it will go down to the wire. the volatility, i think, is going to be greater in the second half of the month, clearly, than in the

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